Calculate your true trading expectancy, project monthly P&L, and see what win rate you actually need to be profitable given your average winners and losers.
Expectancy is the average dollar amount you expect to make (or lose) per trade over a large sample. It's the single best measure of whether your strategy has a real edge — and it accounts for both your win rate AND your average win/loss size.
Positive expectancy — Your strategy has a mathematical edge. Execute consistently and you'll be profitable over a large sample.
Negative expectancy — Even with great execution, you'll lose money long-term. The strategy needs work — either improve win rate, improve average winner, or reduce average loser.
Profit Factor above 1.5 is considered acceptable. Above 2.0 is strong. The higher your profit factor, the more durable your edge is across different market conditions.